TA876 · STA

Nivolumab with chemotherapy for neoadjuvant treatment of resectable non-small-cell lung cancer [ID3757]

Recommended with restrictionsCommittee DFebruary 2023

It is only recommended if the company provides it according to the commercial arrangement (simple discount patient access scheme)

Source documents

Intervention

nivolumab (Opdivo)
monoclonal antibody · blocks the programmed cell death-1 receptor (PD-1) · intravenous

Condition

resectable non-small-cell lung cancer (nsclc)oncology · early

Comparators

NameType Established Committee preferred
neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapyactive drugYes
surgery alonestandard of careYes
adjuvant chemotherapyactive drugYes
neoadjuvant chemotherapy aloneactive drugYes

Clinical trials

TrialDesignPhasePivotal
CheckMate-816RCT3Yes

Economic model

semi markov (company)
Time horizon: lifetime
Cycle length: 3 weeks

ICER

Below £20,000 (nivolumab with chemotherapy vs neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, surgery alone, and adjuvant chemotherapy) · moderate uncertainty
Below £20,000 (nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, surgery alone and adjuvant chemotherapy) · low uncertainty

Methodological decisions (9)

cure assumption

Company applied a 'cure assumption' in the economic model. There is no convincing clinical evidence to support how the cure assumption was modelled. General consensus that cure occurs between years 5 and 8, but no consensus on rates of cure and lack of empirical evidence.

Company: Company applied cure assumption in the model

ERG: EAG considered no convincing clinical evidence to support the cure assumption as modelled

Committee: Cure assumption applied was uncertain; scenario analysis removing the assumption had small effect on cost-effectiveness results

ICER impact: negligible

population generalisability

CheckMate-816 had no UK recruitment and about 50% Asian family background. Resection types and minimally invasive surgery rates differ from NHS practice. Neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy was less effective in North American and European populations compared with Asian population.

Company: Company submitted CheckMate-816 data as primary evidence

ERG: EAG noted generalisability concerns regarding ethnic composition, resection types (higher thoracotomy/pneumonectomy vs. NHS minimally invasive surgery practice), and conducted subgroup analyses by family background

Committee: Trial likely representative of NHS clinical practice; most baseline characteristics were well balanced; clinical evidence from CheckMate-816 was uncertain but suitable for decision making

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

stopping rule

Retreatment restrictions applied for people who had neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy and progressed within 6 months, making them ineligible for further immuno-oncology treatment.

Company: Company applied 6-month immuno-oncology retreatment restriction and redistributed treatments in distant metastasis state accordingly

ERG: EAG noted uncertainty in proportion ineligible for retreatment and timelines; conducted additional scenario analyses including 12-month restriction and no restriction scenarios

Committee: Application of retreatment restrictions in the economic model was uncertain

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

stopping rule

Application of immuno-oncology therapy retreatment restrictions for people who progressed within 6 months of neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy

Company: Applied 6-month retreatment restriction

ERG: Considered uncertainty in proportion ineligible and timeline; noted company did scenario analysis with 12-month restriction

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

survival extrapolation

Parametric models used to extrapolate time to any progression (TTaP) and time to locoregional recurrence (TTLR) beyond CheckMate-816 follow-up. Considerable uncertainty around extrapolation of TTaP and TTLR curves.

Company: Company provided extrapolation approach for TTaP and TTLR

ERG: EAG's approach to modelling long-term TTLR and event-free mortality was uncertain but plausible

Committee: Both company and EAG approaches were considered plausible and produced cost-effectiveness estimates well below NICE's threshold; optimal approach to modelling survival was uncertain

ICER impact: negligible

treatment sequencing

Treatment redistribution in distant metastasis health state accounting for people who had events on neoadjuvant treatment

Company: Redistributed treatments across remaining options for those ineligible for immuno-oncology

ERG: Conducted additional scenario analyses assuming same distribution of chemotherapies for both immuno-oncology and non-immuno-oncology treatments

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

utility source

Health-state utility values for event-free and locoregional recurrence states were higher than expected for NSCLC population. Other issues: using overall rather than treatment-specific utilities from CheckMate-816, using linear mixed models for non-linear EQ-5D-3L data, age-sex adjustment process.

Company: Company used overall utilities from CheckMate-816 with age-sex adjustment

ERG: EAG presented 4 scenarios to explore utility value uncertainty

Committee: Uncertainty sufficiently explored given available evidence

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

utility source

Use of overall rather than treatment-specific utilities from CheckMate-816 in the economic model

Company: Used overall utilities

ERG: Identified this as a minor issue but noted it would be difficult to resolve given lack of evidence

ICER impact: negligible

utility value choice

Concerns that utility values for event-free and locoregional recurrence health states were higher than expected in NSCLC population

Company: Applied utility values from the model

ERG: Presented 4 scenarios to explore this uncertainty

ICER impact: uncertain_direction

Evidence gaps

no direct comparisonNo evidence directly comparing neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, surgery alone or adjuvant chemotherapy; indirect treatment comparison via network meta-analyses used instead
no uk dataCheckMate-816 has not recruited anyone from the UK; about 50% of people in the study had an Asian family background, raising concerns about generalisability to NHS clinical practice
short follow upCheckMate-816 interim analysis had median follow-up of 29.5 months; considerable uncertainty around extrapolation of time to any progression and time to locoregional recurrence curves beyond trial follow-up
immature overall survivalLong-term survival modelling beyond CheckMate-816 trial follow-up
otherUncertainty in the proportion of people ineligible for retreatment with immuno-oncology therapy and the timelines of these restrictions
otherDistribution of chemotherapies used for immuno-oncology and non-immuno-oncology treatments in the distant metastasis health state

Commercial arrangement

simple discount pas · confidential · critical for recommendation

Special considerations

Innovation acknowledged

Cross-references

precedent — Model structure consistent with previous economic models for lung cancer and previous NICE technology appraisals for lung cancer